published : 2023-11-28

Biden Faces Bigger Polling Deficit in 2024 than Obama in 2011

Comparison between Obama and Biden reveals troubling deficits for the current president

President Biden giving a speech at a campaign rally, energizing the crowd and showcasing his charisma. (Taken with Canon EOS 5D Mark IV)

A series of polls are indicating that President Biden trails former President Donald Trump in a potential 2024 election rematch.

Reflecting on the past, the Biden campaign and Democratic allies look back to nearly a dozen years ago when former President Barack Obama, alongside Vice President Biden, won re-election to a second term despite early polls predicting defeat.

Biden campaign spokesperson Kevin Munoz emphasizes that predictions made more than a year in advance often differ significantly when Election Day arrives.

Quoting Gallup's eight-point loss prediction for President Obama, Munoz highlights the unpredictability of early polling and the potential for significant changes over time.

Taking a trip down memory lane, it becomes evident that Obama faced unfavorable polling in late 2011, but his situation was not as troublesome as the deficits Biden currently faces.

During Obama's re-election campaign, he maintained a slight polling advantage over eventual 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney.

Former President Obama and Vice President Biden unveiling their official White House portraits, symbolizing their historic partnership. (Taken with Nikon D850)

In fact, a Fox News poll from December 2011 showed Obama leading Romney by a margin of 44% to 42%.

Similarly, Obama held a comfortable lead over another top contender, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, in the November and December 2011 Fox News polls.

Fast-forward to the present, and Biden finds himself trailing the commanding front-runner for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, Donald Trump, by four points.

According to the same Fox News poll conducted in November 2023, Biden also trails Florida Governor Ron DeSantis by five points and former ambassador and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley by 12 points in hypothetical 2024 general election matchups.

The poll further reveals that Biden's approval rating is significantly lower than Obama's at a similar point in his presidency.

While Obama's approval rating stood at 42%-48% in November 2011 and 44%-51% in December 2011, Biden's approval rating is at 40%-59%.

A close-up shot of a pollster conducting a survey, capturing the essence of political polling and its impact on elections. (Taken with Sony Alpha a7 III)

Furthermore, Biden faces high disapproval ratings among key groups that traditionally support Democrats.

Veteran Republican pollster Neil Newhouse cautions that while polls a year out are not necessarily predictive, they cannot be ignored by the Biden campaign.

Newhouse points out that Biden lacks the campaigning and communication abilities of Obama, which were significant assets for the former president.

It's worth noting that Obama faced his own polling challenges in 2011 following the Democrats' losses in the 2010 midterm elections.

In contrast, Biden's camp highlights the recent successes of the Democratic party in the 2022 midterms and off-year elections, suggesting a positive trajectory.

As the 2024 presidential campaign unfolds, it remains to be seen how Biden will tackle these polling deficits and whether they will shift over time.